The 2025 MLB season has finally reached its nominal midway point, as the All-Star break is finally upon us.
While the players rest up to prepare for the season’s grueling second half, we’re digging into some of the biggest surprises from the first chapter of the campaign. What follows is a look at the five most surprising developments of first half of the 2025 season.
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s MVP push
For years, Crow-Armstrong was believed to be a glove-first outfielder with the potential to hit, but whose lack of power would prevent him from being a true star. Well, toss that projection out of the window.
Entering the All-Star break of his second full season, PCA leads the National League in WAR (5.4) and fWAR (4.9), ahead of the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Cubs teammate Kyle Tucker. Yes, defense is still Crow-Armstrong’s calling card, but in the first half he has slashed .265/.302/.544, with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs for the surprising Cubs. His on-base percentage is dragging down his OPS (.847), and the 23-year-old struggled at times in June, but his 133 wRC+ doesn’t lie.
He’s a budding star and is starting his first All-Star Game as a result of a brilliant first half.
Last-place Orioles
What happened here? After winning 91 games with a young roster in 2024, there was World Series buzz around the Baltimore Orioles entering the 2025 campaign. At the break they’re a shocking 43-52, and sit in last place in the AL East 11.5 games behind the first-place Toronto Blue Jays.
While the offense hasn’t been up to par, ranking 20th in the league in OPS (.703), Baltimore’s pitching has been atrocious. At the break the Orioles rank 27th in ERA (4.92) and WHIP (1.41), and are 29th in batting average against (.268). As a staff they have allowed the second-most home runs in baseball (132), three more than the Colorado Rockies who play half their games at Coors Field. The starting rotation’s ERA (5.16) ranks 29th, just ahead of those same Rockies.
Losing an ace like Corbin Burnes was always going to hurt, but the team’s starting rotation has been far worse than anyone could have envisioned.
Tigers' rise to the top of the AL Central
The Tigers had the elements to compete in 2025, but no one would have predicted they’d have the best record in baseball at the All-Star break. Tarik Skubal is on pace to win his second Cy Young Award in a row and Detroit’s pitching staff ranks in the top 10 in ERA (3.69) and WHIP (1.23), but the team’s offense has become one of the best in baseball. At the break, the Tigers rank sixth in OPS (.749) and runs scored (482) after ranking 23rd and 19th respectively in 2024.
Two Tigers have had almost shocking bounce-back seasons, as first baseman, and former No. 1 overall pick, Spencer Torkelson has found his power, and Javy Baez has recaptured some of the magic that made him one of baseball’s most exciting players years ago. Torkelson has 21 home runs and an OPS of .826 at the break, while Baez is slashing .275/.310/.442 and has produced 2.1 WAR, which is a vast improvement over the -1.1 he racked up in 2024. While those two have been a surprise, Riley Greene has already tied his career single-season home run mark (24) and is proving his 5.4 WAR season in 2024 wasn’t a fluke.
The Tigers look dangerous and with a smart addition or two at the trade deadline, could emerge as the favorite in the American League.
Braves' struggles
On paper, the Atlanta Braves should be firmly in the mix with the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets for supremacy in the NL East, but that hasn’t happened. Instead, Atlanta has limped to the break with a 42-53 record and sits 12.5 games back in the division. As of now, it’s almost certain the Braves will be sellers at the deadline.
Losing Max Fried to the Yankees this offseason hurt, and Charlie Morton’s departure left another hole in their rotation. But with Spencer Strider returning and the development of other young starters, no one expected much of a drop off. Offensively, they seemed to make a shrewd signing by adding Jurickson Profar (whoops!), the return of Ronald Acuna Jr. would bolster the offense and rookie catcher Drake Baldwin’s ascent would make the lineup even deeper. Those assumptions were incredibly far off the mark. Atlanta opened the season 0-7 and hasn’t recovered. Then Spencer Schwellenbach fractured his elbow and A.J. Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery, hamstringing a promising rotation.
It appears the Braves plan to retool at the deadline instead of beginning a rebuild, aiming to bounce back in 2026.
Cal Raleigh’s first-half explosion
Everyone knew Cal Raleigh had power and was a fantastic defender, but no one tabbed the 28-year-old catcher as a potential challenger to Aaron Judge for AL MVP. Raleigh was unbelievable in the first half, clubbing an MLB-best 38 home runs while slashing .259/.376/.634, with 82 RBIs and an OPS of 1.011. His 6.2 fWAR is second in baseball behind Judge, as is his 178 wRC+.
The 2024 AL Platinum Glove winner has also been excellent behind the plate. Raleigh has already topped his previous career-high in home runs (34) and appears nowhere close to stopping, securing the 2025 Home Run Derby crown on Monday. While Judge is blowing everyone else out of the water statistically this season, Raleigh at least has a case for the junior circuit’s MVP award. That’s saying a lot, given how good his competition has been.
