After 10 full weeks of college football, we have a concrete idea of where things stand for the upcoming 12-team College Football Playoff.
The 2025 season marks the 12th fall with the playoff, and the second year of the 12-team edition of the event. Some things have changed from last year’s field, which Ohio State ran through to win the national championship. The most significant: The top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions. The field is still made up of the five highest-ranked conference champions along with seven at-large teams, but the four highest-ranked teams will get byes to the quarterfinals.
Check here for the full Top 25 rankings as released by the selection committee on Tuesday night.
More: Live Reaction to First College Football Playoff Top 25 of the Season
Bubble talk has been a staple of discussion around the NCAA basketball tournament every year. Now, with the debate expanding beyond the top four seeds, far more teams are in the mix for college football as well. Looking at the new Top 25, here’s how I’d power rank the cluster of teams on either side of the bubble based on their résumés and how they’ve performed of late.
How the College Football Playoff field would look today
No. 1 Ohio State, No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 7 BYU and No. 14 Virginia are the four highest-ranked projected conference champions. No Group of 5 team made it into the Top 25, but ESPN broadcast of the rankings revealed that Memphis is currently projected as that final team, and would make the field as of today.
First Round Quarterfinals
12-seed Memphis (not ranked)
No. 5 Georgia
Memphis-Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 9 Oregon
No. 8 Texas Tech
Oregon-Texas Tech winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
11-seed Virginia (No. 14)
No. 6 Mississippi
Virginia-Miss. winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame
No. 7 BYU
ND-BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
Power ranking College Football Playoff bubble teams after Week 10
The Fighting Irish looked close to dead in the water after an 0–2 start to the season, with a light schedule and no opportunity to win a conference championship ahead of them. Those two concerns remain in place—the only team in the Top 25 that lays ahead of Marcus Freeman’s program is a trip to Pitt on Nov. 15. Right now the program’s best win was a 10-point victory vs. No. 19 USC, a nice win for sure but not one that blows anyone away when it comes to ranking at-large teams. Even so, Notre Dame has done exactly what it has needed to do with the hand its been dealt since falling to No. 18 Miami and No. 3 Texas A&M by a combined four points. It’s six wins have come by an average of 24 points. Per the SP+ metric created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Fighting Irish had a postgame win expectancy of 100% in four of those six games. It was 99.5% in the USC win, and 99.9% this past Saturday at Boston College (25–10). That is dominance.
2. Texas (7–2, 4–1 SEC); Ranked No. 11
For no other team has each week—if not each quarter of play—been a true litmus test like Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns. After the Week 1 game against Ohio State, it became clear that the Texas defense was legitimate but the offense was a work in progress, as was quarterback Arch Manning. He continued to struggle through games against UTEP and a Florida team that would soon fire its coach, a 29–21 loss to the Gators making a College Football Playoff run seem improbable. The Longhorns would rebound to smack down a banged up Oklahoma team—a major result given the rivalry between the two and the close proximity they have to one another in the CFP race. After iffy performances against Kentucky and Mississippi State, Texas put together its best start of the year against Vanderbilt … and held on for dear life to win 34–31. Even so, with an electric second half against the Bulldogs and his best game as starter against the Commodores, Manning is rounding into form at the right time and Texas has a pair of big wins over two of its chief rivals for at-large spots. Plenty is still in play for the Longhorns, especially with Georgia and Texas A&M looming.
3. Vanderbilt (7–2, 3–2 SEC); Ranked No. 16
It was hard to come away from the Commodores’ 34–31 loss at Texas and not be impressed with Diego Pavia & Co. After falling behind 24–3 in the early second quarter, Pavia went blow for blow with Manning, including a 21–0 fourth quarter that set up a close onside kick attempt that could have allowed the Dores to complete an epic comeback. The slow start could wind up being one of the results that costs Vandy a chance at the playoff, but right now there is clearly not much separating Clark Lea’s team from some of the other second-tier clubs in the SEC. Style points matter and Vanderbilt would do well to keep its foot on the gas against Auburn and Kentucky to try and make up some ground before the season finale at Tennessee.
4. Oklahoma (7–2, 3–2 SEC); Ranked No. 12
The Sooners have survived in the weeks since the hand injury to quarterback John Mateer, getting the quarterback back in time for the Texas game. He’s stabilized the position in wins against South Carolina and Tennessee, but the OU offense hasn’t looked the same since the injury, which required surgery. The Sooners haven’t broken 359 yards of offense in the four games since, and were completely stymied by a flawed Texas team 23–6 in the Red River Rivalry. Ultimately, Oklahoma owns its own destiny; if the Sooners beat Alabama, Missouri and LSU down the stretch, they will have more than proven their playoff-caliber mettle. Right now, they are a hard team to trust, even coming off of a nice victory over Tennessee.
5. Utah (7–2, 4–2 Big 12); Ranked No. 13
Quietly, the Utes have climbed back up the rankings, buoyed by a high-profile blowout of a Cincinnati team previously undefeated in conference play after hosting last Saturday. It is unclear how many at-large bids will truly be up for grabs for Big 12 schools—at the very least, the league is in much better position than the ACC after one week of rankings, though the Big Ten and SEC are dominating as expected. Utah’s early losses to Texas Tech and BYU puts a cap on its ceiling, but back-to-back wins by 46 and 31 points over Colorado and Cincy indicate that the team is putting it together at the right time. There is still time for the Utes to slip into the Big 12 championship game if they get some help, but with three teams ahead of them in the loss column, they may have to continue to lay it on teams through the end of November—easier said than done.
6. Louisville (7–1, 4–1 ACC); Ranked No. 15
There may not be a one-loss power conference team receiving less attention than the Cardinals. Right now it is hard to build an ACC résumé that would blow away the selection committee—that is clear with how the rankings are treating the conference, which is hurtling towards one-bid league status. Louisville has done well for itself though, scoring quality wins over Miami and Pitt with its only loss coming by three to projected conference champ Virginia. The Cardinals are one of six zero or one-loss teams in ACC play vying for a conference title appearance, so the road ahead is murky, but they’ve been as impressive as any team in the league this year, even if they’ve flown under the radar compared to the Hoos, Canes and the final team on this bubble watch…
7. Georgia Tech (8–1, 5–1 ACC); Ranked No. 17
The Yellow Jackets have been living on the edge, and it bit them on Saturday when they dropped their first game of the season to NC State, 48–36. The team remains in very good shape to reach the ACC title game, but the loss to the Wolfpack may eliminate their chance to snag an at-large bid, especially as it resulted in their CFP rankings debut all the way down at No. 17, below a pair of other ACC teams. Part of the problem: an early-season résumé that has failed to hold up, with Clemson at risk of missing a bowl and teams like Colorado and Virginia Tech disappointing. They can change their fortunes down the stretch, with a game vs. Pitt and a nonconference clash with Georgia to end the season. The ACC championship is looking like the most clear path for Brent Key’s program though, as the committee was clearly not overly impressed with the makeup of Tech’s 8–0 start.
