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The race for the Premier League title and the battle to avoid the drop can often be a hit-and-miss spectacle. Some years you can get incredible epics, and others you can get damp squibs. But the top-four race? Oh boy is that a different beast altogether. The bid to secure Champions League football is guaranteed excitement, and regularly offers up a tantalising climax.
The way things ended last season, and how the summer transfer window shaped up, this campaign’s battle to finish fourth is likely to be just as jaw-dropping as years gone by. Below is a look at how things have fared over the past decade, and it should hand clubs outside the proverbial ‘big six’ a bit of encouragement. Get yourselves strapped in ladies and gentlemen, we’re in for a bumpy ride.
From Peter Crouch’s dramatic late goal at Manchester City to hand Tottenham Champions League football in May 2010, to the Lilywhites edging out north London rivals Arsenal last season, it really has been quite the decade for fourth-placed finishes. The points tally needed has never dropped lower than 66 points, and it hasn’t gone higher than 79 points in these last ten campaigns.
It has generally ebbed and flowed around the 70-75 points region, but two campaigns in particular threw up some very intriguing extremes. Take a look below:
Snapshot: 2013/2014 – Arsenal finish fourth with 79 points
This season may forever be remembered for Steven Gerrard’s slip at Anfield that handed the title initiative to City. But it is also the year in which it took the highest number of points over the past decade to just finish fourth. To put Arsenal’s haul of 79 points into perspective, the north London club would have won the Premier League in both the 1996/1997 and 1997/1998 campaigns.
Why did it take such a tally to simply finish fourth? All the clubs that finished in the top four – City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal – all had a legitimate chance of winning the title at some point in the season, and were racking up victories left, right and centre against everyone below them. In the end, the Gunners finished a sizeable seven points ahead of fifth-placed Everton after claiming an impressive 24 victories in total.
Snapshot: 2015/2016 – Manchester City finish fourth with 66 points
The year of Leicester City, the Foxes’ miraculous title win that will go down in the history books as one of the most unexpected and stunning sporting achievements. Claudio Ranieri’s side’s improbable triumph was largely due to their brilliance, but it certainly helped that the rest of the chasing pack almost had an aversion to wanting to seize their opportunities. The 66 points that City needed to finish fourth – the lowest of the past decade – came about from all the traditional big sides struggling at the same time.
None of the ‘big six’ had a consistently good run of form, and the fact that Liverpool, who finished in eighth, were just six points off the final Champions League spot underlined the inconsistency of the top teams. City finished above arch-rivals United on goal difference, while Southampton were desperately unlucky in their efforts to break the Premier League monopoly as they ended up in sixth – just three points off fourth.
Verdict
Since Liverpool amassed 76 points in the 2016/2017 campaign, the last two seasons have seen a decline in the points needed to finish fourth. Last year, Spurs managed 71 points, but lost an incredible 13 games.
Whilst Liverpool and City continue to storm away at the top, the gap between the other Premier League sides is shrinking. Already this season we have seen United beaten by Crystal Palace. Spurs have lost to Newcastle. Chelsea have drawn to Sheffield United. And Arsenal can’t seem to win the big games once more.
The rest of the big six look vulnerable in a way they haven’t really been in many a year. Transfer turmoil, managerial changes and off-the-pitch issues have all played their part in reducing the gap between the regular top-four contenders and the chasing pack. All that should mean the likes of Everton, Leicester, West Ham and Wolves stand a better chance of upsetting the apple cart.
The average points needed to finish fourth over the past decade stands at 72 – 71.7 points to be exact.
But as the so-called ‘smaller’ teams continue to get better, and the bridge to the top gets reduced, that number should diminish over the coming years.
Only on three occasions did we see the number fall below 70 points over the past decade. The way things are panning out this season, this year could be the fourth time in 11 years.
And that spells very good news for managers hoping to spring a Leicester-esque surprise.
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